FALLBROOK - From drought to wildfire, frost to fruit flies, those who grow and sell avocados in North County are reeling from a year of challenges and disasters that leave some wondering what a pound of the area's most popular crop will cost next year.

Many experts say there will still be a good-sized harvest of the green fruit next spring, and that any market shortfall will be made up with avocados imported from Mexico and Chile.

That, and an effort to keep retail prices from fluctuating, will help keep the price tag of California avocados near what they have been in recent years, but there could be a slight hike after a year of historic blows to the avocado industry, they say.

Meanwhile, the industry is bracing for the effects of mandatory 30 percent water cutbacks scheduled to begin Jan. 1, an added challenge that will affect prices into 2009 and beyond, experts say.

"In spite of all these natural disasters, we're still going to come in with a very healthy crop," said Guy Witney, California Avocado Commission industry affairs director. "The current on-tree crop is at least 325 million pounds of Hass, after the fires and wind."

That's compared with 245 million pounds of the popular Hass variety produced this year throughout the state, he said.

The value of annual avocado crops since 2002 have fluctuated statewide, statistics on the avocado commission's Web site showed. In the 2002-03 fiscal year, avocados brought in $363 million; in 2003-2004, $380 million; in 2004-2005, it dropped to $275 million; and in 2005-2006, the number was back up to $341 million.

The current year's crop has brought in only $243 million statewide, although that figure does not include October sales.

Officials are projecting a crop of 350 million avocados next year, which would bring in about $330 million at the current price of $0.94 per pound.

"With some optimism that we're not going to have another natural disaster between now and (harvest time), we are looking at a fairly large crop," Witney said.

That's good news for consumers who like their guacamole.

"I don't want to pay $2 for an avocado," said Pilar Minaya of Laguna, who was shopping at the Tuesday afternoon farmer's market in Escondido.

Minaya said she was aware of the problems the industry has weathered this year, but was shocked recently when she saw avocados being sold for $1.59 apiece.

"We do buy them, because we feel bad" for the growers, she said. "But if they go any higher than $1.59 for an avocado, forget it."

Hardship

Many who have worked in the avocado industry for decades say they have never seen a sequence of challenges equal to what farmers have experienced this year, and will continue to experience with projected 30 percent water cutbacks in 2008.

"There's never been a time like this," said Eric Larson of the San Diego County Farm Bureau.

Added Witney: "I can't imagine that we could have anything else go wrong."

The hardships began with a historic series of low temperatures Jan. 13-24, when trees and fruit were lost to nighttime temperatures as low as 16 degrees.

That freeze cost $38 million in lost crops in San Diego County, according to a county report released in March, and damaged trees that will not fully recover and produce fruit again until 2009.

When a series of wildfires hit last month, many of those same trees, plus thousands of healthy trees and millions of pounds of avocados, were destroyed.

Then, beginning Jan. 1, growers who received water discounts through the Metropolitan Water District will be forced to cut back their water usage by 30 percent, a crisis that experts say will reverberate into 2009 and beyond.

"If you add to that list the unknown effect of the imported avocados from Mexico, growing avocados in San Diego County next year is going to become quite challenging," Larson said of the market competition posed by imported avocados.

"It's been quite a year," said avocado grower Mike Hillebrecht, whose 65 acres in San Pasqual Valley and Southeast Escondido were not hit as hard as other areas by the devastating January freeze.

Hillebrecht said the October fires were harder on his family's groves because of the accompanying winds that topped 90 miles per hour in some areas.

"The wind hit us the hardest - it blew a lot of fruit off, so we have a smaller crop," he said. "We lost some trees in the fire, but I think the wind hurt us the most."

Weathering the storm

Driving through the charred hills of North County and reflecting on what a 30 percent cut in water would mean for the industry, it would be natural to worry about the price of avocados in the grocery stores next summer, said Fallbrook packing house owner Bob Lucy.

"It's very devastating if you're the guy who had your 10 acres burned," Lucy said. "Still, you have to put it in statewide perspective."

The fire losses total only about 5 percent of the number of trees in the state, he said, "And that wouldn't have a major impact on the price for the consumer."

"If we're down 20 percent or 30 percent in volume, the Mexican or Chilean avocados will fill that void," he added. "I don't anticipate a big impact at the retail level."

Witney said competition at the packing house level helps keep the retail price of avocados down.

But industry officials also understand that the good will of consumers only lasts so long.

"If we saw big fluctuations on the retail shelf, we'd see similar fluctuations in the consumer's buying habits, then it would become very difficult to manage inventory and the supply chain," he said.

"We've noticed there is a price point that most consumers are willing to pay for avocados, and most of the retailers are sticking within that price point," Witney said. "They're not going to move the price around too much."

Contact staff writer Tom Pfingsten at (760) 740-3516 or tpfingsten@nctimes.com.