NORTH COUNTY - Farmers across North County and their water suppliers said Monday they are beginning to prepare for water cutbacks this coming winter, in what one water official said could be the beginning of a "long-term shift" in North County's water resources.

Local water officials said they were dusting off plans that could put month-by-month caps on agricultural customers' water use and penalties for exceeding the caps.

"We are doubling our prayer efforts for a wet winter," said Chuck Badger, a lemon and orange grower in the Encinitas/Rancho Santa Fe area and president of the San Diego County Farm Bureau.

Supply reductions of at least 30 percent, compared with a still-undetermined reference year, could go into effect in January, barring exceptional weather before then.

The official call for cuts from Southern California's main water supplier, the Metropolitan Water District, is not expected until August or September, local water officials said.

Water can be one of a San Diego County grower's largest expenses, including labor. Some North County operations have yearly bills of several hundred thousand dollars.

"If we have 30 percent less water, we'll have to cut our crop by 30 percent," said Donnie Dabbs, manager of Briggs Tree Company in Vista. "Less product means hiring fewer people, from field workers to salespeople."

The Metropolitan Water District told member agencies last week to make a "reduction plan" for agricultural customers, who pay less for their water in exchange for being first in line for cuts.

"These are our marching orders, but we still have to figure out many of the details," said Keith Lewinger, general manager of Fallbrook's Public Utility District.

According to a blueprint last followed in the early 1990s, local water districts would allot agricultural customers month-by-month a certain percentage - 70 percent, for example - of their water usage in a recent "base year."

But which base year is most appropriate for allotment calculations still needs to be worked out, Lewinger said.

The mood Monday among water officials was slightly brighter than last week because on Friday, a federal judge rejected a petition by two environmental legal groups to halt the pumps on the Sacramento-San Joaquin river delta to protect the delta smelt, an endangered fish.

"We dodged that bullet," said Gary Arant, general manager at Valley Center Municipal Water District, where about 80 percent of water goes for agricultural use.

But a meager Sierra snow pack and an ongoing drought on the Colorado River mean even if the ongoing legal issues surrounding the delta smelt are resolved, the water picture still looks bleak.

"This time around, we have more lead time (than in the 1990s)," Arant said. "But this could be the beginning of a long-term shift."

Avocado, citrus and ornamental tree growers around North County said they could respond to cutbacks this winter in a variety of ways, including planting fewer trees, accelerating when they pick fruit and reactivating unused wells.

They also said that landscaping takes up a sizable fraction of residential water use and that they thought agriculture shouldn't necessarily bear the pain alone.

Many avocado growers "stumped" fractions of their trees after this January's debilitating freeze, leading to the appearance of white skeletal groves along Interstate 15, North County's "Avocado Highway."

Stumped trees can still be regrafted, said Al Stehly, whose family's Stehly Grove Management cares for properties around the Valley Center area.

Stehly said he may reactivate some wells that were shut down years before because water coming from them had become too salty.

"Even for avocado trees, salty water may be better than none at all," he said.

Nursery operators say that, unlike fruit growers, less timing is involved in their all-year operations. Some don't take interruptible water supplies because of the higher value of their crops.

"We've had long-term plans in place to cut back water use anyway," said Janet Kister, who runs a commercial nursery in Fallbrook with her husband.

She said they are switching to more efficient drip irrigation, a investment that takes a few years to put in place but one that could reduce water use by about 30 percent.

- Contact staff writer Quinn Eastman at (760) 740-5412 or qeastman@nctimes.com.