VALLEY CENTER - For the sixth year in a row, schools in the Valley Center-Pauma Unified School district have suffered from falling enrollment, district officials said Wednesday.

Since the end of the 2006-07 school year, six of the district's nine schools have lost a total of 113 students - or 37 more than originally projected - district business manager Pam Moe said Wednesday.

The falloff translates into more than $500,000 less in state funding for the district next year, because districts receive about $5,529 in state funds for each student based on the previous year's attendance.

"It's getting worse," Superintendent Lou Obermeyer said Wednesday. "It's a domino effect. You lose students, you lose revenue. And many of your expenses don't go away."

The latest enrollment figures and projections were presented to district trustees during a special workshop Tuesday night on budget expenditures and enrollment trends throughout the district, including at the Palomar Mountain School.

The one-room Palomar Mountain school house, which serves 7 students this year - down from the 11 students last year - runs the district $104,000 annually. That is about $63,000 more than it expects to bring in attendance dollars this year, and close to $80,000 more than it is projected to collect next year when enrollment is projected to drop to 4 students.

District officials said they may have to consider closing the school. The district is forming a seven-member committee to analyze the effect of closing the school, trustee Doug Dechairo said.

"I don't think the board is ready to make any decision either way until we see more of what the impact will be," Dechairo said.

The district is one of many in the area and throughout the state struggling with a steady decline in enrollment.

Since the 2003 school year, Moe said, attendance in the Valley Center-Pauma has fallen off by about 1,000 students. All but one of the districts' schools - Pauma School, where enrollment has hovered between 252 students and 281 - have seen significant declines.

This year's drop, she added, may have been at least partially due to October's wildfire and rough housing and credit markets.

While no figures on the exact number of students who have left the district since the fires were available Wednesday , Moe said there is anecdotal evidence to support that students who lost homes and trailers in the Poomacha Fire have relocated elsewhere. A similar shift occurred, she said, after the 2003 firestorm that swept across the county.

"We don't know how many kids it will be, but we know that we will lose kids because of that fire event," Moe said.

- Contact staff writer Shayna Chabner at (760) 740-5416 or schabner@nctimes.com.