NORTH COUNTY -- The suspense continued to build Monday over whether Rancho Santa Fe investor Eric Roach will challenge Brian Bilbray for the GOP nomination in the June primary election for the 50th Congressional District seat formerly held by disgraced conservative Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Bilbray received more votes than any other Republican in the April 11 special election to choose a temporary replacement for Cunningham through December. He will now face off against Democrat Francine Busby on June 6. One of two Democrats who ran in the April 11 contest, Busby handily won that party's spot, winning almost 44 percent of the votes.

But when voters go to the polls in June they will also be casting ballots in the regularly scheduled primary where each parties' voters will choose their candidate to compete in November's general election. The winner of that election will serve a full two-year term starting in January.

In the past several days, speculation has abounded as to whether all of the 13 Republicans who lost to Bilbray would unite behind the former Congressman in support of his candidacy for the June primary.

On Monday, second place GOP candidate Roach could not be reached for comment, but a campaign spokesman said the millionaire businessman has not yet made up his mind whether to run in the primary. And third-place finisher and former state Assembleyman Howard Kaloogian said in a phone interview that if Roach decides to run in the primary, he would support him and not Bilbray.

Meanwhile, local and state Republican Party officials said Monday they would not be endorsing any Republican candidate for the primary election. However, both officials expressed concerns that if any Republican candidate decides to compete against Bilbray for the GOP nomination, any negative campaigning between the two in the coming weeks could hurt the party.

Roach run possible

With Roach's decision still up in the air, the possibility remains that he will insist on running. Bilbray captured 15.26 percent of the ballots in the April 11 special election, edging out Roach by about 1,000 votes. When the initial results came in early Wednesday morning, Roach had said he was considering asking for a recount. But he changed his mind once the final tally came in that showed him still trailing Bilbray by more than 1,000 votes. Roach also conceded defeat to Bilbray in the special election, but left open the possibility that he would run against him in the primary.

On Monday, Roach campaign spokesman Stan Devereux said that Roach was traveling and not available for comment.

However, Devereux said there is a big difference between Tuesday's election -- where voters of any party affiliation could vote for any candidate -- and a GOP primary election, where only Republicans will be able to cast their ballots.

"The outcome might have been different on April 11 had it only been limited to Republicans," Devereux said.

He said that since Bilbray's narrow win in last week's election "some of the candidates in the special election" have encouraged Roach to stay in the race for the primary nomination. Other candidates have recommended that Roach drop out of the primary, Devereux said.

"Eric Roach is the conservative and Bilbray has taken a more moderate position on some of the votes that are important to conservatives," Devereux said of Bilbray's five-year record in Congress.

Reached by phone Monday, Bilbray said he had spoken with Roach late last week and the Rancho Santa Fe investor had told him he needed a few days to rest and make his decision on whether or not to run in the primary. However, Bilbray said Roach should make his decision with great care.

Bilbray said he believes Democrats are hoping and praying that Republicans do not unite behind a single candidate.

"They think that is their only hope," Bilbray said. "I would hate to give the D.C. establishment what they want: a divided Republican Party."

With 105,000 registered Democrats versus 157,000 registered Republicans, the 50th District seat has long been considered a safe one for the GOP. However, in light of the Cunningham scandal -- he recently pleaded guilty in federal court to tax evasion and bribery charges and is now serving an eight-year, four month sentence in federal prison for the crimes -- Democrats have said they see the election as ripe for an upset.

The Kaloogian factor

Perhaps lending strength to Devereux's argument was Kaloogian's statement Monday that he is dropping out of the Republican primary race and will support Roach if he decides to run. Staunch conservative Kaloogian came in third among Republican candidates in the April 11 election, winning a 7.44 percent share of the votes. He said he spent the weekend mulling his options and decided against running in the primary.

"Instead, I will enjoy being a private citizen," Kaloogian said.

If Roach decides to stay in the primary race, Kaloogian said he would choose him over Bilbray.

"I would like to support a conservative and clearly I think Roach is," one Kaloogian said.

As far as Bilbray is concerned, "I don't know what makes him a conservative," Kaloogian said, accusing him of a voting record that is less than conservative on issues like gun control and abortion.

Local and state Republican officials appeared to be dancing on egg shells Monday when asked whether Roach should continue to fight for the nomination.

California Republican Party Chairman Duf Sundheim said the state party has not taken a formal position in support of any single candidate for the GOP primary. Nor would the party make such an endorsement, he added. To do so would be "unprecedented," Sundheim said.

However, when asked whether it could hurt the party if Roach or another Republican decided to battle it out with Bilbray for the GOP nomination, Sundheim had this to say: "Those looking at the primary need to weigh their personal ambition against what is in the best interests of the country and the party."

Ron Nehring, chairman of the Republican Party of San Diego County, said the party will aggressively campaign in support of Bilbray and against Busby in the runoff election. However, like state party official Sundheim, Nehring said the local Republican Party will not endorse any GOP candidate for the primary election.

If there is more than one Republican candidate running in the primary, a nasty battle between Republican candidates for the primary nomination could produce some "unintended consequences," Nehring said. And those unintended consequences are more likely if "Republican candidates decide not to abide by Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment, 'thou shall not speak ill of another Republican.'"

Speaking of unintended consequences, UC San Diego political science professor Gary Jacobson said that if Roach were to win the primary elections, "it may be that some of Bilbray's supporters would be angry enough to vote for Busby."

In a Monday phone interview, Jacobson, who specializes in congressional elections, said that if Roach runs in the primary and Bilbray and Roach have to duke it out for the nomination, it stands to help Busby's candidacy.

If Bilbray "sees Roach going after him, he will have to move to the right and that would be to Busby's advantage," he said.

It's even possible that while Bilbray could win the runoff election for the temporary seat, Roach could end up taking the primary election, Jacobson added.

"It's not likely, but it is conceivable," he said.

Contact staff writer William Finn Bennett at (760) 740-5426, or wbennett@nctimes.com. To comment, go to nctimes.com.