Even with a Democrat-controlled Congress, President George Bush may still have a tough time turning his so-called comprehensive immigration reform plan into law, analysts say.

Last week's sweep of both houses of Congress by the Democrats appears to set the stage for immigration legislation that would include a guest-worker program and legalization for millions of illegal immigrants.

But analysts say Democrats may have trouble unifying members behind such a bill and may fear upsetting the electorate before the presidential election in 2008.

Immigration is a volatile issue in North County and across the nation. Hundreds have rallied in Escondido, where the city recently passed a law barring landlords from renting to illegal immigrants. And thousands have marched in North County streets earlier this year rooting for reform, while anti-illegal immigration activists protested day-labor sites.

But just what to do about the problem is a question that has divided people in the region and the nation's capital.

While the Democratic leadership may agree with some of the president's immigration proposals, many of the newly elected members of that party were voted into office on platforms that included stronger border security and not amnesty, said Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform that supports stricter immigration laws.

"The leadership on the Democratic side may be on the same page as Bush, but at the same time, this wave of Democrats ran on platforms of enforcement," Mehlman said.

One the other hand, immigrant and Latino rights groups said last week that they saw a different message sent by voters on immigration. They said the anti-illegal immigration rhetoric used by the Republican Party did not work as a wedge issue; rather, it solidified the Latino vote for Democrats and hurt some of the leading supporters of tougher measures.

"You have to look at the immigration issue for the Republicans as being a catastrophic mistake," said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, a liberal political and advocacy organization. "It prevented them from other things that would have benefited them. They took their entire national agenda in the wrong direction."

In August, GOP leadership staged a series of immigration hearings across the country, including four in San Diego County. The hearings focused largely on promoting the House immigration reform bill, which relied primarily on strengthening border security; and bashing the Senate version of the bill, which included a guest-worker program and a path to legalization.

The hearings were widely criticized as "political theater," setting the stage for the midterm elections.

'Common ground'

As of Friday, Democrats had gained 29 seats in the House with 10 races still up in the air. They gained six seats in the Senate to take the leadership.

In a postelection news conference, President Bush said immigration reform was one issue on which he and the Democratic leaders could agree.

"There's an issue where I believe we can find some common ground with the Democrats," he said.

However, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, who will become the speaker of the House, notably did not mention immigration reform in her first postelection speech about the agenda of Democrats, which includes such goals as energy independence, stem cell research, college tuition reform and minimum wage increases.

Frank Sharry, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, a group pushing for a guest-worker program and legalization of illegal immigrants, said it will take significant political maneuvering to prod Democrats forward.

"What we'll probably see is a Senate-first strategy," Sharry said. If the Senate has the two-thirds vote needed to move the legislation forward and the president is willing to sign it, "then that will put the House in a better position."

Some Republicans, including those among San Diego County's delegation, said the Democratic victory doesn't mean that the public wants the kind of reform supported by the Democratic Party's leadership.

Rep. Brian Bilbray, R-Escondido, who survived the Democratic sweep by beating challenger Francine Busby, made illegal immigration a key campaign issue. Bilbray said Tuesday he would continue to push for tougher sanctions against those who hire illegal immigrants, an employment verification system and more border security.

"My own campaign reflects that in North County, you just can't ignore the immigration issue," he said.

Cecilia Munoz, vice president of the National Council of La Raza, a Latino civil rights organization, said some of the staunchest opponents of comprehensive reform, such as Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., who have dominated much of the debate over immigration, are likely to get less attention in the new Congress.

"I don't have high expectations for Tom and other members of his caucus," Munoz said. "They will continue to be loud. What's going to change is how much play they get."

Immigration sways some voters

According to some national exit polls, illegal immigration was a strong but not decisive issue for voters, said Celinda Lake, vice president for Domestic Policy at the Center for American Progress, a Democratic public opinion and political strategy research firm.

A Pew Research Center exit poll showed 30 percent of those polled nationwide said illegal immigration was an "extremely important issue," but only 52 percent of them said they voted for Republican candidates, while 46 percent of them voted for Democrats.

Corruption, ethics, terrorism and Iraq ranked higher than immigration as concerns among those questioned in the Pew poll. But beneath the apparent voter discontent about the Bush administration was public anger about its inaction on immigration, said Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform.

"From globalist trade policies that export American jobs, to failed immigration polices that effectively import millions of low wage workers to fill jobs in the U.S., the American voters said loudly and clearly: enough," Stein said.

In the 50th Congressional District, immigration was a top concern for voters, according to an exit poll by Zogby International, a polling and research firm with offices in Washington. It showed that 21.2 percent of those questioned said immigration was the most important issue in their decision to vote. Change in Washington was the second-most important issue among those polled, 15.5 percent.

The Zogby poll, which had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.3 percentage points, did not specify what kind of immigration reform voters preferred.

Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.