People working for and against the drive to dump Oceanside City Councilman Jerry Kern are trying to figure out whether the surprise resignation of Councilman Rock Chavez will affect the Dec. 8 recall election.

"I don't know, I don't know what people are saying about this," Kern said last week. "It's not going to change anything I do. I'm going out walking precincts, mailing pieces, getting people out to vote."

With nearly a year left in his four-year term, Chavez announced Monday that he will resign from the council to become California undersecretary of veterans affairs.

Chavez, who has been aligned with Kern and Councilman Jack Feller, has said he figures his resignation will energize voters who fear that if Kern goes, there will be a dramatic shift in council policy with Mayor Jim Wood and Councilwoman Esther Sanchez leading a new council majority.

David Shore, the co-chairman of Citizens Against the Recall Effort, agrees.

"It (Chavez's impending departure) brought a lot of this into focus for a lot of people," Shore said.

He said some people in the business community have been "sitting on their hands" and staying out of the recall campaign because they don't want to wind up on the losing end of a council majority, either the old one with Kern or a new one without him.

"Rocky's resignation might spark some of these people to rethink it," Shore said.

Sanchez, a recall supporter, disagrees.

"I don't see how his resignation has any effect other that the fact that it's extremely important that Kern is recalled," Sanchez said. "It's about an individual. It's about Jerry Kern."

Chavez's resignation was a side issue, Sanchez said.

Political consultant Mary Azevedo, who is helping Kern raise money to fight the recall, said most people who are going to vote have already made up their minds.

"We're so close to the actual election day, I don't really think his resignation affects the recall election as far as what the voters are going to do," Azevedo said.

She expects of the voting will be done by mail-in ballots and said most of those went out Monday before news of Chavez's appointment had time to sink in.

"There's a huge amount of the population that doesn't realize Rocky's gotten an appointment and needs to resign," Azevedo said. "This is going to be all absentee voters. It's going to be over in probably a week and we won't know it. We'll just have to wait until Dec. 8" when the ballots are counted "to know what it is."

By the end of last week, 33,241 mail-in ballots were sent to Oceanside voters, said county Registrar Deborah Seiler ---- nearly half of the city's registered voters. And Wayne said she expects that more than half of those voting in the recall will use mail-in absentee ballots.

Historically, people who vote by mail mark their ballots the day they get them, Azevedo said.

As of Friday, 548 mail-in ballots had been returned, Seiler said. She said it was too soon to say what the final count will be, but Wayne is predicting a 30 percent turnout.

Feller said he thinks it is "wishful thinking" to expect Chavez's resignation to give a boost to Kern.

"I don't think it changes anything on Jerry's side," said Feller, who is actively campaigning for Kern. "I think Jerry's just going to do everything he can to get the information out on this recall."

Like Azevedo, Feller said voters who are tuned in to the recall made up their minds "long before this issue came up."

Wood, who has endorsed the recall and given money to the recall campaign, declined to discuss the effect of Chavez's resignation on the election. The mayor has said previously that Kern should go because he has supported numerous projects which were detrimental to the city.

The timing of Chavez's resignation in the midst of the recall campaign has also caused much speculation on how he'll be replaced.

By law, the council has 30 days after Chavez resigns to appoint a replacement or call for a special election. If the council does neither, a special election is automatically triggered. The special election can be no sooner than 114 days after its called but must come on the next established election date after 114 days.

If Chavez had resigned Friday, April 13 would be the election date set by the state government code calendar, Wayne said. Waiting until the end of the month to resign pushes a special election date to June, Wayne said.

Still unresolved is whether the council can avoid a recall by appointing someone or even when the council will make a decision and who will make it.

The council has been divided 3-2 on most major issues and Chavez's resignation sets up a 2-2 deadlock, with Mayor Jim Wood and Councilwoman Esther Sanchez on one side and Councilmen Jack Feller and Jerry Kern on the other. Few people think such a sharply divided council can agree on an appointment.

Sanchez said the recall has generated such animosity that there's no point in even discussing how to fill Chavez's seat until after a Dec. 8.

"I just don't think there's any kind of quality discussion that could happen," Sanchez said.

That raises another issue. If Kern is recalled, it might be up to a new council with a majority aligned with Wood and Sanchez deciding whether to have a recall or appoint someone.

If Kern stays, Wood predicted that the 2-2 deadlock will hold and an election will be required to replace Chavez.

Call staff writer Ray Huard at 760-901-4062