There may be a recession, but one wouldn't know it by the solar installation business.

Firms installed three times as many solar-power panels in San Diego and Riverside counties last year than in 2007, according to state statistics.

And installers say they expect to install more in 2009, because generous tax incentives are kicking in.

Industry analysts say interest is surging despite the ailing economy because most homeowners who buy panels have cash on hand, and California's campaign to curb global warming is shining the spotlight on solar electric systems.

"Typically, the winter is the slow season for solar," David Wiley, administrative assistant for the installation firm Real Goods Carlson in Murrieta, said last week. "You're scraping for jobs and taking whatever you can. But now we're booked solid for a good two months and we don't see us slowing down anytime soon."

Likewise, Solana Beach-based Sequoia Solar just came off its best-ever month as a dozen people placed orders for solar panels, said Jeff Pitzer, vice president of sales and marketing.

The firm's previous record for a single month was seven orders.

"They used to be a symbol of the kook who lives up on the hill," said Bob Noble, chairman of the California Center for Sustainable Energy, which promotes green energy and administers the state's solar rebate program in San Diego County.

Today, the solar-paneled roof is, like the Toyota Prius hybrid, a symbol of a greener future.

It is popular to own one, Noble said. And many prominent people do.

Indeed, former Solana Beach Mayor Dave Roberts recently installed solar panels on his roof.

Roberts, who still serves on the council, said he loves the system on the west-facing roof of his 4,100-square-foot house.

"It was the right thing to do, environmentally," Roberts said. "And it has really cut down on our utility bill."

The boxes

Noble said modern sun-power systems are popular because they are attractive.

"They are not ugly boxes on houses tucked away in the woods," he said. "They are beautiful examples of 21st century technology."

Solar panels are also an attractive investment. At a time when the value of stocks is plummeting, many see the systems as a safe bet for receiving an immediate return in the way of lower electric bills, said Damon Franz, an energy analyst for the California Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco.

The surging interest in solar power is clearly reflected in the number of people applying for state rebates through the California Solar Initiative program, launched in January 2007 as part of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's strategy to put panels on 1 million roofs.

In the first year, rebate applications totaled 329 in San Diego County and 153 in Riverside County.

Totals tripled in 2008 to 977 and 476 respectively in the counties, according to figures compiled by Melicia Charles, a regulatory analyst for the commission.

The new systems installed in the last two years are capable of generating 9 megawatts in Riverside County and 19.5 megawatts in San Diego County, the figures show.

That's a significant amount of electricity, but a fraction of the typical 500-megawatt output of a power plant.

The biggest surge came in the last months of 2008 -- just as the economy was imploding.

Rebate applications peaked at 202 in September for San Diego County, and at 64 in October for Riverside County, commission figures show.

When it came to new homes with solar panels, 161 were built in San Diego County last year through a San Diego Gas & Electric Co. program begun in April, said April Bolduc, company spokeswoman.

Interest in the program, which offers tax credits, grew steadily throughout the year, Bolduc said.

The right thing

Despite worsening news on the economic front, industry officials and installers expect a more robust 2009.

That's because the federal tax credit was boosted to 30 percent in October, "which is huge," Bolduc said.

On Thursday, the $2,000 cap on federal tax credits for installing panels on existing homes expired.

Wiley, of Real Goods Carlson, said many of his firm's customers have been standing on the sidelines, waiting for the new year to arrive before jumping into the solar game.

One of those customers is Donna Murdoch, who has ordered a 4.5-kilowatt system for the roof of her one-story, 2,000-square-foot home in Ramona.

For her, waiting was a no-brainer.

Murdoch's system will cost $30,500. But she said the net price for her will be $16,500.

That's because she will get a $6,900 rebate from the state and a federal tax credit of $7,100, thanks to the removal of the federal cap.

The system will pay for itself in nine years, she said.

"I've always wanted to do it," Murdoch said. "I think it's the right thing to do. We live in a very sunny place, and we can't produce enough power."

For most of the year, the new panels will provide all the power Murdoch needs.

The exception will be summer, when she will need some help from San Diego Gas & Electric to stay cool during inland heat waves.

She was careful not to build too big a system because, if there is electricity left over after a year is up, it cannot be sold to the local utility under state law.

"I don't want to donate to SDG&E," Murdoch said.

The game changer

Besides doing the "right thing" environmentally, Murdoch said she ordered panels to shield herself from future rate hikes.

Shielding is something a lot of solar customers are aiming to do, said Pitzer, of Sequoia Solar.

"After what gas prices did several months ago, most of us realize we don't want to be subjected to those types of fluctuations in energy prices," Pitzer said.

A new state law may open the way for many more people to become energy-independent.

Schwarzenegger recently signed legislation giving California cities the option of establishing programs that provide loans to homeowners to install solar panels.

Families will be able to avoid the up-front cost of tens of thousands of dollars.

Instead, they will be able to pay off loans gradually over 20 years through assessments tacked onto their property-tax bills.

A few weeks ago, San Diego became one of the first cities -- and the largest so far -- to announce a program in response to the new law.

Several cities in North County and Southwest Riverside County are considering following suit.

"That could really be a game-changer," said Andrew McAllister, director of programs for the California Center for Sustainable Energy.

Up until now, McAllister said, the chief obstacle for a family considering solar has been the initial cost.

The new law could push that barrier out of the way.

"I think it is going to allow solar to go truly mainstream," he said.

Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.

Local solar panel installations*

Month San Diego County Riverside County

January 2007 0 1

February 0 0

March 0 2

April 0 0

May 0 0

June 0 2

July 24 17

August 50 17

September 57 29

October 72 30

November 57 30

December 69 25

2007 Total 329 153

January 2008 69 25

February 50 23

March 33 24

April 53 39

May 67 40

June 94 41

July 70 34

August 120 50

September 202 47

October 93 64

November 63 37

December 63 52

2008 Total 977 476

*Based on homeowners and business owners who applied for state rebates under California Solar Initiative program.

Source: California Public Utilities Commission, Energy Division