A car group is anticipating the steepest regional holiday travel decline in years for the Fourth of July weekend.

The Automobile Club of Southern California predicted Monday that 2.8 million Southern California residents will travel out of town on and around this Independence Day, a decline of 2.7 percent from the 2.9 million who took trips last year at this time.

Marie Montgomery, a spokeswoman for the Automobile Club in Costa Mesa, said that travel has declined on almost every holiday during the recession, beginning with Memorial Day 2008. And she said the 2.7 percent drop forecast for this weekend would be the largest decline yet.

"It's not a big surprise to see a travel downturn this holiday given our economy," club spokesman Jeffrey Spring said in a written statement.

But it could have been worse.

The auto club predicts that 1.9 percent more people will fly to their destinations over the Fourth of July holiday period than did this time last year. The group expects 226,000 residents of 13 Southern California counties, including San Diego and Riverside, to board planes, up from 220,000 in July 2008.

"Air travel is up because of cheaper fares and vacation deals that we haven't seen in years," Spring said.

Montgomery said the bargains are replacing the fuel surcharges that scared air travelers away a year ago. And, she said, "that has helped to make the drop-off not quite as steep as it could have been."

As always, a lot more people are expected to travel by car -- 2.3 million, the auto club said. That would be a decline of 3.2 percent from the 2.4 million last year.

The rest are expected to travel by train or bus.

Most families are expected to stay relatively close to home.

"And San Diego, by the way, is the No. 1 destination for most Southern Californians," Montgomery said. "So you're going to get an influx of visitors. Lucky you."

The second most popular destination is Las Vegas and the third is Arizona, with the Grand Canyon being the primary draw. Rounding out the top five are San Francisco and the central California coast.

Montgomery said the average round trip is expected to cover 600 miles and cost $1,200.

The dip in travel locally is expected to be more pronounced than it will be nationwide, she said, largely because of the state's unemployment rate, which has soared to more than 11 percent.

"We are still being harder hit than a lot of other states," Montgomery said.

The projections are based on economic forecasts and a survey conducted by IHS Global Insight for the auto club.

Call staff writer Dave Downey at 760-745-6611, ext. 2623.

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