If you think there are a lot of big rigs on the road now, wait until 2050.
A new study estimates that the number of freight trucks passing through the region's border crossings ---- many of which then travel through North County ---- will nearly quadruple to 4.4 million annually, up from 1.2 million in 2007.
Those trucks will carry a projected 39 million tons of goods, or three times as many as in 2007, according to the report, titled the San Diego and Imperial Valley Gateway Study.
Why will so many more trucks be on our roads?
The study's authors say increased trade among nations, often called globalization, is the chief cause.
Several transportation leaders reacted with concern last week about the side effects of such growth, namely, added congestion and air pollution.
The study was presented to the San Diego Association of Governments board of directors Friday.
It was prepared for SANDAG by the consulting firm HDR Decision Economics.
"The air quality would be intolerable. ... I think there have to be some innovative solutions," said Bob Campbell, chairman of the North County Transit District and an advisory member to SANDAG, the region's planning agency.
The study does not address air quality: It was intended solely to provide freight projections for a larger report, the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, said Christina Casgar, the agency's goods movement policy manager.
Still, several SANDAG board members said the agency should study how a surge in trucks would affect air quality and the health of communities along truck routes.
Patricia McCoy, a board member and Imperial Beach city councilwoman, said high asthma rates in some South County communities are evidence that increased congestion, such as near the U.S.-Mexico border crossings, takes a toll on health.
Campbell suggested that more truck freight be placed on trains. Trucks move about 96 percent of the freight in the region, including San Diego and Imperial counties.
According to the study, rail carries only 2 percent, and ships and planes carry the rest. And those percentages are not expected to change much by 2050.
That's largely because moving freight by truck is cheaper, Casgar said.
She added that California air quality rules require trucks to retrofit their engines to cut down on emissions.
The surge in trucks and freight is forecast based on an expected continuation of freight's 2.4 percent annual growth at the region's border crossings.
Casgar told board members that the recent economic downturn was factored into the projections.
The trucks that cross the border are a portion of the total on the region's roads every year.
Many travel through the area, but never cross into or from Mexico.
One very rough estimate of the total is 5.2 million trucks annually, Casgar said.
San Diego City Councilman Ben Hueso, a SANDAG board member, said southern portions of San Diego are already overwhelmed by truck traffic.
"(The study) raises public health concerns," Hueso said. "But it also raises public safety concerns. If you have an emergency, a fire, there is nowhere to move on those roads."
To cut down on freeway congestion, Campbell, the transit chairman, suggested running trucks at night.
There are no plans to do that, nor are there plans for truck-only lanes on the area's freeways, said Laurie Berman, director of the San Diego office of the California Department of Transportation.
She added that a set of Interstate 5 expansion plans, which would widen the coastal freeway by up to six lanes, allows space for the added trucks.
While sharing the road with trucks might not be ideal, Julie Sauls said it's a necessity for the flow of goods across America.
In 2007, trucks that crossed the border moved $49 billion worth of goods, a figure that's expected to jump to $309 billion by 2050.
"It's important to remember how essential trucks are for everyday life," said Sauls, of the California Trucking Association. "Over 80 percent of (the nation's) communities receive their goods solely by trucks."
Call staff writer Chris Nichols at 760-740-5426.
