Your stimulus payment may come with some long strings attached.

Sure, you would receive a federal income tax credit of $400 if you are single, and $800 if you are married, under the giant economic stimulus package to be dropped soon on President Barack Obama's desk.

But the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association says a typical California family would wind up paying $1,000 a year in increased state taxes if Sacramento finally approves a plan to address the state's $42 billion budget deficit, which contains $14 billion in new taxes.

Legislators have approved portions of the budget-balancing plan, but action on its more controversial measures remained stalled late Saturday evening as the long debate continued.

"They are going to cancel each other out," said John Husing, an economist who has been tracking economic trends in Riverside and San Bernardino counties for decades.

However, Marney Cox, chief economist for the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency serving San Diego County, said most area families who make less than $150,000 still would wind up paying less in taxes than now. The $150,000 threshold is about the point where several of the new federal tax breaks would be cut off.

But, clearly, Cox said, the new state taxes would offset a lot of the breaks and spread a lot of pain around -- particularly the 12-cent-a-gallon increase in the gas tax and the 1-cent increase in the sales tax.

"Those are both very regressive taxes," Cox said. "No matter what your income level, you end up paying the same."

The proposed budget deal also would nearly double car registration fees.

There is no question the state budget is going to be felt deeply throughout Southern California, Husing said.

"Is it going to hurt? Yes, it is," Husing said. "It is going to hurt both on the tax side and the reduced-spending side."

On the spending side, the plan would trim budgets for K-12 schools by $8.6 billion over two years, probably forcing schools to lay off teachers, increase the size of some classrooms and postpone spending on construction and repairs.

Some of that reduction is expected to be backfilled by the money from the $787 billion federal economic stimulus bill, but not all of it, local officials said.

"It won't be enough to fill the hole," said Lora Duzyk, assistant superintendent of business services for the San Diego County Office of Education.

"It's welcome," said Jeff Okun, assistant superintendent of business support services for Temecula Valley Unified School District, of the anticipated infusion of federal cash.

But Okun said officials in his district aren't exactly ready to celebrate the stimulus package because they don't know yet what is in store.

"The unknown to us is how much we will get, how it will come to us, and when," he said.

Nor are local educators giddy that Sacramento is finally fixing the budget deficit.

After all, Okun said, passage of the state budget could result in the closure of three schools and the scaling back of some high school sports programs.

College officials have precious little to jump up and down about.

In a bid to save $264.4 million, the state budget-deficit deal would impose a 10 percent across-the-board cut on the University of California and California State University systems.

"It's a lot of money, that's for sure," said Margaret Lutz, a spokeswoman for Cal State San Marcos.

And it means that tuition fee increases are a possibility, Lutz said. "But it's too soon to say and we certainly hope that is not the case," she said.

As for layoffs of professors, "I don't foresee that happening at this point," she said.

There also is a lot of pain in the budget for public train and bus operators.

Tom Kelleher, a spokesman for North County Transit District, which operates the Coaster and Sprinter rail lines and the Breeze bus system, says the district is going to lose crucial state funding for public transit.

"We were budgeted to use our current year … (state transit) allotment of $4.4 million for $3.4 million in capital (projects) and $1 million in operating (expenses)," Kelleher said by e-mail. But, he said, "We have received $1.1 million to date and do not expect any more this fiscal year."

And Kelleher said the district won't receive anything next year.

In other areas, the deal would:

- Eliminate cost-of-living increases for seniors and disabled people who are receiving money from the Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment programs, in a bid to save $594.1 million.

- Impose a one-time, 5 percent surcharge on people who owe personal income tax at the end of 2009. That is expected to generate $3.2 billion.

- Reduce the amount taxpayers can claim on dependent care credit to the federal level of $100 instead of $300, to generate $1.4 billion in revenue.

- Continue a two-day-a-month furlough for 238,000 state workers, trims overtime pay and eliminates Lincoln's Birthday and Columbus Day as paid state holidays, saving $1.4 billion.

- Cut the medical budget for the state prison system by 10 percent, saving $181 million.

- Eliminate annual cost-of-living increases for recipients of the state's welfare-to-work program, known as CalWORKS, to save $79 million.

On the other hand, the state deal has an economic stimulus component of its own. It would grant up to $200 million in tax credits for businesses that hire new people over the next two years. Those companies would be able to claim a credit of up to $3,000 per full-time job created.

For the most part, however, local lawmakers maintain the deal would do anything but stimulate the California economy.

Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth, R-Murrieta, said, "Punishing every Californian by increasing their taxes, especially in a time such as this, is not only wrong-headed for the economy, it is simply morally wrong to demand the people reach deeper into their wallets in order to continue to fuel the spending of state government."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.