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Report says power would have been cut during 3 of 13 wind-related fires

REGION: Shut-off plan might not have stopped Witch Creek fire

REGION: Shut-off plan might not have stopped Witch Creek fire
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Had San Diego Gas & Electric Co.'s plan to cut power to backcountry areas during extreme fire conditions been in place in 2007, it might have prevented the Guejito and Rice Canyon fires that year, but it probably would not have kept slapping power lines from sparking the Witch Creek fire, according to a new report.

The Witch Creek and Guejito merged, and the combined blaze became the fifth-largest wildfire in California history. Together, the blazes tore a nearly 200,000-acre path of destruction across North County, wiping out 1,141 homes in Rancho Bernardo, Escondido and Poway, and killing two people.

The Rice Canyon fire torched close to 10,000 acres and destroyed 240 homes.

In the wake of those devastating infernos, SDG&E proposes to cut the flow of electricity to as many as 130,000 people in fire-prone rural areas such as Valley Center and Ramona when certain thresholds are reached for wind speed, humidity and plant moisture.

The new 17-page report, filed late Friday by SDG&E with the California Public Utilities Commission, was a follow-up to a March 13 report revealing that the San Diego utility's wires, transformers and other equipment started 167 fires in the last 5 1/2 years. SDG&E said 13 fires, going back to August 2003, started when high winds toppled wires, or broke tree limbs and caused them to crash onto lines.

According to the latest report, conditions likely would have prompted SDG&E to turn off power during the periods when three of those 13 fires ignited.

Aside from the Rice Canyon and Guejito fires, the other occasion was December 2004, when high winds knocked down a power line. The resulting fire near Descanso was confined to a single acre.

While it appears the plan would not have prompted power to be shut off in the area where the Witch Creek fire broke out, SDG&E spokeswoman Stephanie Donovan said other new initiatives might have prevented it, had they been in place in 2007.

"There might have been other ways to eliminate power lines as an ignition source, had our comprehensive community fire safety plan been in place," she said.

Donovan also said it is difficult to tell how many times in the last 5 1/2 years outages might have been triggered, because there are few weather stations in the backcountry.

"It's really difficult to apply future criteria and look backwards at past events," she said.

The follow-up report was ordered by an administrative law judge to provide a more complete picture of how the plan might affect people.

SDG&E initially proposed putting the plan in place last fall, then backed off amid protests by residents and a lawsuit by water districts. The company now is seeking commission approval to launch the program Sept. 1, in time for the next Santa Ana season.

Gary Arant, general manager for the Valley Center Water District, one of the agencies that filed suit, said the shut-off plan is misguided because it focuses on power-line starts, which account for 3 percent of fires.

"It is perplexing," he said. "They're going to shut off power to try to prevent a fire, but 97 percent of the time fires are not started by power lines."

And during those times when fires are started by arson or other reasons, firefighters may find themselves without water -- because power is required to pump water -- to fight the blazes, Arant said.

The new report also revised the estimate of the total backcountry population potentially affected by such planned outages down to 130,000, from an earlier number of 148,000, based on a San Diego Association of Governments evaluation. The report also states that the average number of people affected by any one wind-triggered outage would be 22,000.

Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 745-6611, Ext. 2623, or ddowney@nctimes.com.

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Recent wind-related fires in San Diego Gas & Electric Co. territory (since August 2003)
- Dec. 16, 2004; Wynola; 5 acres; no damage or injuries reported; caused by downed power line.
- Dec. 16, 2004; Descanso; 1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by downed power line.
- Dec. 17, 2004; Ramona; 1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by downed power line.
- Feb. 19, 2005; Fallbrook; 1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by tree branch falling on power line.
- Feb. 7, 2006; Laguna Niguel; 1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by tree branch falling on power line.
- June 27, 2006; Fallbrook; 1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by tree branch falling on power line.
- Oct. 27, 2006; Boulder Creek; 2 acres; no damage or injuries reported; caused by downed power line.
- Nov. 30, 2006; Santa Ysabel; 130 acres; damage to bridge and pasture land; caused by downed power line.
- Dec. 27, 2006; Camp Pendleton; 3 acres; no damage or injuries reported; caused by downed power line.
- March 3, 2007; Jamul; 0.1 acre; no damage or injuries reported; caused by tree branch falling on power line.
- Oct. 21, 2007; San Pasqual; *197,990 acres; killed two people, injured 45 people, destroyed 1,141 homes in Rancho Bernardo, Escondido and Poway; caused by wire and television cable slapping each other. (Guejito fire)
- Oct. 21, 2007; Ramona; *197,990 acres; killed two people, injured 45 people, destroyed 1,141 homes in Rancho Bernardo, Escondido and Poway; caused by power lines slapping against each other. (Witch Creek fire)
- Oct. 22, 2007; Rainbow; 9,472 acres; destroyed 240 homes; caused by tree branch falling onto power line. (Rice Canyon fire)
Totals: 13 fires, 207,607 acres, 2 deaths, 45 injuries, 1,381 homes destroyed.
*The Witch and Guejito fires merged and the damage totals reflect the combined fire
Sources: SDG&E, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CalFire)

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