It seems like just about everyone in the media has an expert opinion about the real estate market these days. Some predict doom and gloom and say the proverbial bubble has burst, while others take it all in stride, citing normal real estate cycles to explain the recent decline in market activity. That observation -- a recent decline in market activity -- is just that, an observation. No more and no less.

The real estate market is alive, well and thriving in San Diego County. Why? Well, we all know the answer to that question: location, location, location! The effect of supply and demand on some markets is direct; that is to say, when the supply of a high demand commodity is depleted, prices will tend to rise in those markets. While it is true that there are short-term and long-term consequences to major fluctuations in supply, there remains no commodity with which one can make a fair comparison to real estate. Since the real estate market is highly sensitive to perception, people should base judgments about that market on something more than knee-jerk reactions to negative spin.

Moreover, no market is more unpredictable and therefore more volatile than that of the speculator, which has, by definition, the potential to be ultra-risky. Unfortunately, the media lump that specialized market in with the general market when making their predictions. A pity.

Understand that whenever someone attempts to "make a killing" in a very short term there is considerable risk involved. Unless one has a high tolerance for risky speculative investing, the "get-rich-quick" mentality should be avoided when buying real estate no matter where you are considering making the purchase.

The North County San Diego homeowners market, on the other hand, is much easier to read precisely because it is a less volatile, low-risk environment that historically has been consistently favorable for medium- to long-term investors. And that is the environment in which the majority of San Diegans feel most comfortable.

Try to keep all the negative spin coming from the media in perspective. After all, according to industry estimates, 2006 may have been the third-best year on record for sales. The median price of homes purchased 10 years ago increased 88 percent nationwide, according to the National Association of Realtors, and the number of new households is expected to increase 15 percent in the next decade, according to the "State of the Nation's Housing 2006" by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. That's averaged throughout the nation. The numbers in premium areas, such as San Diego County, could be even more promising.

Moral to the story: Don't unnecessarily shy away from real estate. With interest rates still near 40-year lows, now may well be the best time to buy your first home -- or your dream home.

Along with his wife, Julie, Greg Burnham, of Burnham Residential Inc., is a Realtor with Prudential California Realty in downtown San Diego.