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A brave look at the future? Winning Padres hoping to emulate Atlanta model

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SAN DIEGO -- Padres general manager Kevin Towers often has spoken of wanting to emulate the model and success of the Atlanta Braves.

Before finishing in third place in the National League East with a 79-83 record this year, the Braves had reeled off 14 consecutive division titles -- excluding the strike season of 1994 -- under GM John Schuerholz and manager Bobby Cox. They are the modern-day standard-bearers for consistent excellence without spending extravagant amounts of money, a la the New York Yankees.

The Padres have a long way to go to even be mentioned in the same conversation as the Braves. Yet never in the 38-year history of the franchise have the Padres been on firmer footing.

Each of their first three forays into the playoffs -- in 1984, 1996 and 1998 -- were followed the next season by a slide to third place or lower in the division. After winning the West in '96, manager Bruce Bochy's club fell to 76-86 the next year. And after reaching the World Series in '98, the Padres auctioned off their best players and spiraled into five consecutive losing seasons.

Now, they are coming off three winning campaigns and two playoff appearances in a row, though both trips ended in first-round elimination by the St. Louis Cardinals. Far from the usual downturn, Towers and others expect greater prosperity in the future.

"I'm happy with the core and nucleus of this club," Towers said. "We just want to add to it and make it stronger."

Added center fielder Mike Cameron, whose $7 million option for 2007 is likely to be picked up: "I think the San Diego Padres have some pieces in place where you have a legitimate chance every year."

That's the idea. Here's a look at what the Padres have and what they might need to make San Diego look a little more like Atlanta West:

Starting rotation

+ What they have: Right-handers Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Clay Hensley form a solid trio to build around. All are 27 or younger, and all won at least 11 games this year. Peavy, the ace, might have been the worst of the three, going 11-14 with an ERA (4.09) more than a run per game higher than his previous two seasons. Young earned the Padres' only playoff victory after twice flirting with no-hitters and holding batters to a league-low .206 average during the regular season. Hensley shifted from the bullpen in April and impressed with his nasty sinking fastball.

+ What they need: With David Wells expected to retire and Woody Williams likely to leave as a free agent, the Padres could use a veteran to complement their youngsters, and a southpaw to accompany their righties. Houston's Andy Pettitte, a free-agent-to-be, fits the bill on both counts. For the No. 5 spot, the Padres might take a flier on a pitcher like Kerry Wood, who could pay major dividends if he can stay healthy.

Bullpen

+ What they have: The league's best game-closing threesome in setup men Cla Meredith and Scott Linebrink and closer Trevor Hoffman. Meredith, a rookie sidewinder obtained from Boston in May, enjoyed a club-record streak of 34 consecutive scoreless innings and finished 5-1 with a 1.07 ERA. His rapid emergence as a dominant reliever could prompt the Padres to again explore the market for Linebrink, who was shopped at midseason and might be used to land a big bat. The ageless Hoffman broke Lee Smith's all-time saves record while recording his most saves (46) and lowest ERA (2.14) since the late 1990s.

+ What they need: If Linebrink is traded, the Padres will pursue another dependable arm for the late innings. Otherwise, they will rely on Towers' rare gift for effectively stocking a bullpen on the cheap.

Catcher

+ What they have: After letting free agent Ramon Hernandez walk last fall, the Padres never could have imagined they'd get the production they did from Mike Piazza (22 home runs), backup Josh Bard (.338 average, .406 on-base percentage) and even third-stringer Rob Bowen (22 runs). The major question is the fate of Piazza. The Padres will decline his $8 million option for 2007 but will consider re-signing him at a lower price. Though he has professed interest in returning, Piazza increased his market value this season and might find it hard to turn down a more lucrative offer from, say, an American League team that wants him as its designated hitter.

+ What they need: Maybe nothing. The ideal scenario would be Piazza coming back for the San Diego discount. Even if he leaves, however, the 28-year-old Bard -- who came over from the Red Sox with Meredith -- has shown himself capable of handling the starting job.

Infield

+ What they have: Three building blocks and a black hole. The Padres are ecstatic with the right side. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez, 24, had a breakout season by batting .304 with 24 homers, 38 doubles and 82 RBIs while playing Gold Glove-level defense. Second baseman Josh Barfield justified the promise that followed him from the minors by hitting .280 with 72 runs, 32 doubles and 21 stolen bases. Shortstop Khalil Greene, 26, also remains highly thought of, even if he has lost some luster because of a disconcerting pattern of injuries. Then there's third base.

+ What they need: For the Padres, the hot corner has been downright icy. Prospect Sean Burroughs flamed out last year, and veteran Vinny Castilla showed his age this season, leading to his release in July. That was followed by experiments with trade acquisitions Todd Walker and Russell Branyan, the latter of whom fared better than the former. Towers has said he will likely exercise Branyan's option, but the journeyman slugger might be a better fit off the bench. This winter, look for the Padres to shoot big (Seattle's Adrian Beltre) or even for the moon (the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez).

Outfield

+ What they have: Towers worked too long and hard to get Cameron to have him leave now. He will be back, along with right fielder Brian Giles, who's under contract through 2009. For left fielder Dave Roberts, however, a career season (.293 average, 13 triples, 49 steals) probably won't be enough to earn a new deal, as his game doesn't suit the Padres' stated desire for more power.

+ What they need: A big bopper who can do for their lineup what Albert Pujols did for the Cardinals in the playoffs. Few such players exist, of course, and the competition for them is always fierce. But if the Padres are serious about spending serious money this offseason, then they'll throw their hat into the ring for impact sluggers like Carlos Lee of Texas or Alfonso Soriano of Washington.

PADRES NOTE: Padres RHP Chris Young is among 11 pitchers on a 24-man team representing Major League Baseball in its biannual competition against a team of Japanese All-Stars. Young was named Tuesday to the squad that will travel to Japan in November for a five-game series against the best of Nippon Professional Baseball. Among the other selections are Minnesota LHP Johan Santana, Philadelphia 1B Ryan Howard and Atlanta CF Andruw Jones.

Contact staff writer Brian Hiro at b_hiro@hotmail.com. Comment at sports.nctimes.com.

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