It's perhaps the most inexact science in sports. A baseball scout in America's heartland tries to compare a 17-year-old high school phenom to a 22-year-old college star at prospect factories like LSU, Miami or Texas and a year-round prep star from San Diego.
That's why a team like the Padres, choosing third in the amateur draft in 1982, picked Texas prep pitching star Jimmy Jones and passed on Dwight Gooden.
It's why, picking eighth in 1991, the Padres took pitcher Joey Hamilton when Shawn Green and Manny Ramirez were on the board.
It's why the Padres grabbed catcher Ben Davis with the second pick in 1995 when they could have had Kerry Wood or Todd Helton.
And it's why, in 2000, they chose Mark Phillips when Chase Utley was available.
Yes, mistakes happen in the first round. Only about 66 percent of first-round picks reach the majors. For the Padres, that number is 54 percent (29-of-53).
Mistakes can't happen anymore. With payroll expected to stay low under new owner Jeff Moorad, the Padres will not be a player in free agency. They must draft well and develop to be successful.
Look at teams that are having success this season. The Los Angeles Dodgers, who have the best record in baseball, boast homegrown players Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Blake DeWitt, Scott Elbert, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Russell Martin, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade, James McDonald, Brent Leach and Ronald Belisario.
The Colorado Rockies feature Aaron Cook, Chris Iannetta, Todd Helton, Ian Stewart, Garrett Atkins, Troy Tulowitzki, Seth Smith, Ryan Spillborghs and Brad Hawpe.
The Oakland A's are struggling, but they have a plan. The starting rotation at one time was all homegrown -- Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland, Josh Outman, Brett Anderson and Vista High's Trevor Cahill.
The Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals all had six homegrown players on their Opening Day rosters.
The Padres had only three: Jake Peavy, Chase Headley and Nick Hundley.
In the early years of the franchise, the Padres drafted cheaply and got what they bargained for. There were some first-round success stories: Dave Roberts (1972), Dave Winfield (1973), Andy Hawkins (1978), Kevin McReynolds (1981), Andy Benes (1988) and Derrek Lee (1993). But there are far more busts, first-round picks who never made an impact in the big leagues: Jay Franklin (1971), Mike Lentz (1975), Brian Greer (1977), Joe Lansford (1979), Jeff Pyburn (1980), Ray Hayward (1983), Kevin Garner (1987) and Robbie Beckett (1990).
Over the last dozen years, though, the record is even worse. Consider first-round disasters Matt Halloran (1996) and Kevin Nicholson (1997). Halloran was so bad that then-Padres manager Bruce Bochy named the first cut of spring training after him.
In 1999, the Padres had six first-round picks, with compensatory selections factored in: Vince Faison, Gerik Baxter, Omar Ortiz, Casey Burns, Mike Bynum and Nick Trzesniak. Baxter, who appeared destined for stardom, was killed in a car crash. Only Bynum, who had a 7-12 career record, made it to the big leagues.
How about Mark Phillips (2000) and Jake Gautreau (2001)? Gautreau was stricken with colitis and never made it after a long climb to Triple-A. Phillips flamed out early.
Gautreau was the first pick of Bill "Chief" Gayton, the Padres director of scouting. And though Gayton would never admit it, Gautreau wasn't his first choice. Mike Fontenot and Bobby Crosby caught his eye that year. Both were on the board when the Padres picked.
Khalil Greene was a good choice in 2002, and Tim Stauffer was the pick in '03. Stauffer admitted to a shoulder problem after the draft and took less money to sign. After a long struggle and surgery, he might be ready to contribute.
Matt Bush was the No. 1 overall pick in 2004, and one of the most horrendous selections in draft history. Blame that one on former owner John Moores.
General manager Kevin Towers favored Stephen Drew. Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver and Jeff Niemann were also on the Padres' radar.
Don't buy the trumped-up story that Bush -- the local boy out of Mission Bay High -- called the Padres two days before the draft, begged them to take him, and they were so impressed they grabbed him. This was all about Moores being cheap, and the organization paid dearly for it.
Bush is out of baseball, an embarrassment to the game and himself. Drew, Verlander and Weaver are stars.
It was the "Hail Cesar" draft in 2005, when the Padres took pitchers Cesar Carrillo (eighth) and Cesar Ramos (35th) in the first round. Both have had reconstructive elbow surgery and are just now starting to advance. The Padres could have taken Jacoby Ellsbury or Colby Ramus instead of Carrillo and Luke Hochevar instead of Ramos.
Asked if the Padres would ever get lucky in the first round -- considering the health issues of Gautreau, Stauffer, Carrillo and Ramos -- Gayton bristled.
"Luck shouldn't have anything to do with the first round," he said. "Luck comes into play in the later rounds when you hit on a Jake Peavy in the 15th (1999) or in the 42nd round with Kyle Blanks (2004). There is some luck there.
"Scouting comes into play in the top three rounds. We shouldn't miss there."
Second baseman Matt Antonelli was the first-round choice in 2006. He looked like a solid prospect until last season, when he hit only .215 at Triple-A Portland.
As in 1999, the Padres had six first-round picks (including compensatory) in 2007: left-hander Nick Schmidt (23rd), outfielder Kellen Kulbacki (40th), shortstop Drew Cumberland (46th), catcher Mitch Canham (57th), left-hander Cory Luebke (63rd) and outfielder Danny Payne (64th). Schmidt has already had reconstructive elbow surgery. It's way too early to judge this draft, but Schmidt is bouncing back while Cumberland, Canham and Luebke are considered prospects.
"You know, maybe when we draft a pitcher, we should just send him out and have elbow surgery," said Grady Fuson, the Padres' vice president of scouting and player development. "It would set us back a year, but at least we would know the timetable. I'm kidding, of course, but the thought has crossed my mind."
Last year's first-round pick was Wake Forest first baseman Allan Dykstra, a Rancho Bernardo High graduate. He's struggling at Single-A Fort Wayne.
"Don't be too hasty to judge Dykstra," Gayton said. "They're retooling his swing. It has taken longer than we hoped, but this is a talented kid, a good, hard-working kid. We think the light will come on."
Under Fuson and Gayton, the Padres have adopted a "college-first, play-it-safe mentality," said Jim Callis, the executive editor of Baseball America. Indeed, Gautreau (Tulane), Greene (Clemson), Stauffer (Richmond), Carrillo (Miami), Antonelli (Wake Forest), Schmidt (Arkansas) and Dykstra (Wake Forest) were college players.
"The only high school pick under Fuson and Gayton was Bush, and that was a debacle," Callis said. "They seemed fixated on the advanced college guys from good programs who put up good numbers. There was never a thought -- it appeared -- to upside. They've drafted a lot of the same type of player. There are a lot of corner infielders and no up-the-middle infielders.
"And beyond Mat Latos, there aren't many high-level pitching prospects."
Latos, an 11th-round pick in 2006, has already reached the majors and carries a 3.72 ERA in two starts.
This year, however, the Padres strayed from the college-first philosophy. They picked high school outfielder Donavan Tate third overall, prep outfielder Everett Williams in the second round and hard-throwing prep pitcher Keyvius Sampson in the fourth round.
"This could be the most exciting Padres draft in a decade," said John Manuel, Baseball America's co-editor in chief. "Scouts are mixed on Tate's bat, but if he clicks, he's exactly the athlete the Padres need in Petco Park. Williams may not be on Tate's level, but he's not far off and could be a coup. Sampson fell due to signability concerns."
Super agent Scott Boras represents Tate. None of the organization's prep picks in the top six rounds -- Tate, Williams, Sampson and hard-throwing right-hander James Needy of Santana High -- have signed. The Padres have until Aug. 17 to cut deals.
"I know there are money concerns, but I can't see the Padres spending the third pick on Tate and not getting a deal done," Callis said. "I can't see them not signing Williams."
Gayton said the process is slow, but that the Padres have the money to sign all their picks.
"I guess like it looks like we changed philosophies," Fuson said. "That's not true. When we took over, we needed to stock the farm system, and we took players who fit but were a little more advanced.
"Now we have some prospects, some guys who are on their way, so we could take some high school kids with potential upsides.
"The philosophy is the same. We want players that can help this organization win a pennant. We want to hit on the first round, the first five rounds. And we want to get some guys in the later rounds, too.
"That's how you build a farm system. That's how you build a pennant winner."
Contact staff writer John Maffei at 760-740-3547.
