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Bettor or worse? — Del Mar's new Polytrack a big puzzle for handicappers

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It was just another day on the Southern California thoroughbred racing schedule, but July 2 turned into the perfect storm for Hollywood Park -- a record four-day carryover of $3.2 million in the Pick Six.

The carryover was created in part by Hollywood Park's new Cushion Track and full fields, which sent a lot of bettors emptying their bank accounts and their children's piggy banks. Cell phones were working overtime as friends put together syndicates to pursue the score of a lifetime.

The final numbers were staggering: a North American-record $10.8 million in the Pick Six pool and a single-day Pick Six handle of $7.5 million.

"That day we couldn't believe that the betting was so heavy, that it came into the pot so big," said Mike Ziegler, vice president of the Hollywood Park Racing Association. "If I had to guess before, I would have thought we would have been hard-pressed to set a record ($7.3 million), but we went past it and won for fun."

At the end of the day, there were 13 winning tickets worth $576,064.40, including eight tickets purchased in California.

Some 100 miles to the south, Joe Harper, president of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, just smiled. Harper lives for carryovers because they drive the betting handle up -- way up.

Del Mar's new Polytrack surface, which debuts on opening day Wednesday, could help drive betting to new heights. Synthetic tracks are easier on the legs and joints of thoroughbreds, which has meant fewer catastrophic injuries and fuller fields.

Now, handicappers must figure out how the new surface influences their approach to betting the races.

"Do I have visions of a $10 million Pick Six handle?" Harper said. "Sure, but it can be a double-edged sword. People could bet more or they bet less because they aren't sure how the track will play."

Ziegler said bettors shouldn't sweat the small stuff because the payoff could be "ginormous."

"I think it has to do with full fields," Ziegler said of synthetic surfaces like Hollywood Park's Cushion Track. "Full fields are everything, and that's one of the advantages of Cushion Track. From a mathematical standpoint, when there are more horses, there are more combinations. You can't buy all the races.

"It will be interesting to see what happens at Del Mar the first couple of days. Are people going to sit back and wait? Are they going to look at horses that ran well on our track or the Keeneland horses? Maybe there are some angles that people will use that are different."

Harper said he has received hate mail from handicappers who say they will never play or come to Del Mar again because of the installation of Polytrack.

"I find that most of those comments come after a losing day," Harper said. "I think all tracks get letters like that. Most people want to have an edge, but with this they are going to have to start from scratch. I think things will settle down."

No one really knows what to expect from a handicapping standpoint. Tracks like Turfway Park in Florence, Ky., Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., Woodbine in Toronto, and Arlington Park in Arlington Heights, Ill., have installed Polytrack. But each has faced different challenges due to climate.

"I'm not sure how we will fit in," Harper said. "… As long as it's safe, that's all I care about."

Harper cares about betting handle, too, but no one expects a huge drop once people get the hang of handicapping Polytrack.

"I think most of the professionals I know are going to take a wait-and-see approach," said Mike Superstein, the North County Times public handicapper. "They are going to have to watch races for at least a week to get bearings on how it's playing and the horses are handling it. The Polytrack seems to work different at different tracks, but I don't think the handle will suffer at all."

"I just can't imagine diving in early until we see what kind of trends are coming up," said Southern California public handicapper Bob Ike, a Vista High graduate. "I think the casual guy will play the same way and get lucky with some gigantic payoffs.

"I really do think the payoffs could be chaotic the first couple of weeks. I would look for huge payoffs. If we have good field size the first week at Del Mar, I wouldn't be shocked if there was a multiday Pick Six carryover."

Carlsbad's Jon Lindo is a handicapper who also owns horses that are trained by Bill Spawr. He, too, plans to be cautious initially when handicapping or betting Polytrack races.

"I'm going to be open-minded and look for as much value as possible the first couple of weeks of the meet," Lindo said. "I don't want to say we're shooting in the dark, but I think value is extremely important the first couple of weeks until the form settles down.

"As far as me wagering, I'll probably play more on the turf races until I get a line on the Polytrack."

One opinion that seems to be universal with Polytrack is that speed horses don't do as well and horses that come from behind (closers) seem to win more than their share.

"If I had a preconceived notion, it would be that closers will have a definite advantage," Superstein said. "I did notice that as Arlington has gone on, it was a lot more fair. Horses just don't bunch up on the turn and horses in front don't get swallowed up. Maybe they have learned to work with it and maybe Del Mar can take advantage of the fact that Polytrack has been around for a while."

Another angle that has proven successful for handicappers is turf horses -- or horses with turf breeding -- going from grass races to the Polytrack.

"(That angle) was successful at Keeneland," Ike said. "Who could kick home. You could win on lead, but closers had an advantage.

"You have to wonder if the jockeys might overcompensate. We saw that at Keeneland when the fractions were very slow because jockeys were grabbing so much early in the race and everyone just tried to sprint home.

"That's so different to the way California has been. Speed has always been a premium in California. I think the jockeys have adjusted at Hollywood Park, but you could have a two-length lead at the sixteenth pole and you're not home yet. There is always someone coming home late."

That makes for very excited bettors.

Lindo believes the key will be to wait for opportunities down the line because horses will need to acclimate to the new surfaces. He thinks trainers who work their horses on the new track and then race them might have an advantage.

"Guys like (trainer) Bruce Headley are winless at Hollywood Park because he absolutely refuses to work a horse over that track, and he's paid for it," Lindo said. "I think it's going to be real important for horses to get work over that Del Mar racetrack. I'll be looking for those patterns."

One advantage to the new Polytrack is that Midwest trainers Dale Romans and Cody Autry will run horses at Del Mar. Lindo is thankful to see new horse flesh.

"We're getting new barns out here for the first time in years," Lindo said. "We're getting some fresh stock, and it makes the fields bigger in numbers and deeper in contention. We're getting better betting races for the public. I don't have to win every race, but if I do cash a ticket, I'd like to cash at a decent mutuel. I like that idea."

All handicappers will be looking to see if Hollywood Park form transfers to Del Mar. Though Cushion Track is synthetic, many trainers and jockeys thought Hollywood Park became like a dirt track toward the end of its meet because more wax needed to be added to the mixture.

"My initial thoughts are that no one knows what is going to happen and if anyone does, they are crazy," Ike said. "It's a whole new world. I personally think there won't be a correlation between Cushion Track and Polytrack. I'm not even sure Hollywood Park form will matter that much."

So how will people who handicap the track for a living attack Del Mar?

"I think most of us are going to do the same thing -- come up with the best horse," Superstein said. "That's all we can do early. We're going to have to go on current form and how we handicap normally. We'll have to hope the track plays for that horse.

"The most important thing is that the horse will benefit (from Polytrack). If the horses benefit, everyone will benefit."

Said Ike: "I do like that Del Mar is different (with Polytrack). Del Mar is an island anyway. Why not have a different surface for seven weeks? If there is chaos, so be it."

Let the free-for-all begin.

Contact staff writer Jeff Nahill at (760) 740-3550 or jnahill@nctimes.com.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club's annual 43-day meet

When: Wednesday through Sept. 5 (closed on Tuesdays)

Post times: 2 p.m. except 4 p.m. on July 20, 27, Aug. 3, 10; 3:30 p.m. Aug. 17, 24, 31; 1 p.m. Aug. 19 (Pacific Classic Day)

Admission: $6 general, $3 Diamond Club members, $4 senior citizens; $10 clubhouse, $5 Diamond Club members

Highlight: $1 million Pacific Classic, 1 1/4 mile on main Polytrack, 3-year-olds and up, Aug. 19

Telephone: (858) 755-1141; (858) 793-5533 (general information)

Race results: (888) 338-7223

Web site: www.delmarracing.com or www.dmtc.com

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