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Consumer confidence drops sharply in April

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NEW YORK (AP) -- A sharp decline in consumer confidence in April shows Americans are increasingly troubled about jobs and the current economy, worries that may not be easily erased by a recent cut in interest rates, analysts say.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 109.2 in April, down from a revised 116.9 in March. The board's survey of consumers was completed before the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates for the fourth time this year.

While the overall confidence index has declined for most of the past year, the drop-off has largely reflected pessimism in consumers' longer-term economic outlook. Their assessments of current business conditions and job prospects had remained strong -- until April.

"This plunge … is a significant turn for the worse, to my way of thinking, because what it's saying to me is that the cumulative effect of layoffs and rising energy prices is now really reaching into people's pocketbooks," said David Orr, chief economist for First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.

Orr said such immediate concerns won't be eased by a cut in interest rates, an assessment seconded by Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. A similar surprise rate cut in January had little effect on consumer confidence figures for the following month, Franco said.

"It's clear that consumers have begun to worry about employment trends and these concerns are gnawing away at consumer confidence," Franco said.

In the new survey, 27.9 percent of consumers rated current business conditions as good, down from 33 percent in March. Another 13.3 percent rated conditions as bad, up from 10.8 percent.

On the employment front, 14.2 percent of those surveyed said jobs are "hard to get," up from 12.6 percent last month. Those reporting jobs are plentiful fell from 43.8 percent to 40 percent.

The Conference Board index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is considered a key indicator because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity. The index compares results with its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100.

The April confidence survey was completed April 17, the day before the Fed's surprise cut in interest rates, Franco said. In an effort to reinvigorate the struggling U.S. economy, the Fed has cut rates a total of 2 percentage points this year.

Analysts believe Fed officials clearly had investors in mind in the timing of last week's cut, hoping to bolster consumer confidence, which has been sagging as Americans watched trillions of dollars of paper wealth evaporate over the past year in a stock market swoon.

But April's confidence figure shows that consumers remain doubtful and are likely to restrain their purchases, economists said. That, together with already scaled back spending by businesses, could drag on an economic rebound, they said.

"That's not good news," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "It's consistent with this notion that the economy at best may recover in the third or fourth quarter, but that it won't be much of one. It's very consistent with the notion of 2 to 3 percent growth, not 3 to 4 percent as we look to 2002."

The April drop returned consumer confidence to the same level it was at in February, reflecting increasing pessimism about both current and future business conditions. Analysts were expecting a decline, but only to 114.

4/25/01

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